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🗳 Vote Goal & Win Number for District 58
2024 General Election Results:
- Total Votes: 15,863
- Republican (Charley Thomson): 10,060 (63.4%)
- Democrat (Gail Allison): 5,782 (36.4%)
- Write-ins: 21
Practical Vote Goal:
- To win, a candidate needs 50% + 1 vote
- Based on 15,863 total votes, the win number is:
(15,863 ÷ 2) + 1 = 7,932 votes
Reality Check:
- Democrat got 5,782 votes in 2024, meaning they fell short by:
7,932 - 5,782 = 2,150 votes
🧮 Trend of Total Votes by Year:
Year | Total Votes | Notes |
2024 | 15,863 | Latest, turnout increased |
2022 | 12,480 | Midterm, lower turnout |
2020 | 17,019 | Presidential, high turnout |
2018 | 13,018 | Midterm |
2016 | 15,374 | Presidential |
2014 | 11,714 | Midterm |
2012 | 15,513 | Presidential |
Projected 2026 Turnout:
- Expect similar to 2022 (~12,500) if it's a standard midterm
- If it's a high-stakes cycle, it could edge toward 15,000+
Safe planning assumption:
Plan for 13,000–15,000 total votes
Win number range:
- Low-turnout scenario: ~6,500 votes
- High-turnout scenario: ~7,500 votes
💰 Campaign Financial Feedback for District 58
Total Historical Fundraising:
- $2.68 million raised in the district from 2000–2024
- Average per candidate: ~$89,561
Standout Years:
- 2020: $1.5 million (likely due to a major, competitive race)
- 2016: $408,730 (another heated contest)
- Most other cycles: $50k–$180k range
2024 Fundraising:
- $56,142 total for both candidates
- Average per candidate: ~$28,000
- Suggests lower financial engagement, race not seen as highly competitive
🎯 Strategic Takeaways for Future Races
- Vote Goal:
- Target 7,500–8,000 votes to win, planning for 15,000 total turnout
- If it's a sleepy cycle, ~6,500 votes could theoretically do it — but don't gamble on that
- Financial Benchmarks:
- Competitive race = Expect $150k–$400k to be raised district-wide
- Non-competitive cycles hover around $50k–$60k
- Current Trend:
- Incumbent Charley Thomson (R) won decisively in 2024
- Democratic performance stagnant (~5,700 votes)
- Unless national winds shift, D's need major investment + turnout work to close the gap
✅ Next Step Recommendation
- Get precinct-level data to identify potential Democratic growth areas
- Compare 2024 results to 2020, when Dems performed stronger
- Set a realistic vote goal of 8,000 votes, with field operations focused on boosting turnout
- Plan for minimum $100,000+ fundraising if the district is to be seriously contested