IAHD058

State

Iowa

Office

🇺🇸State Representative

2024 Incumbent

Charley Thomson

Ballotpedia (District)

https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa_House_of_Representatives_District_58

District Map

District Map URL

https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/DMP/1366235.pdf

County

ChickasawFloydBremer

🗳 Vote Goal & Win Number for District 58

2024 General Election Results:

• Total Votes: 15,863
• Republican (Charley Thomson): 10,060 (63.4%)
• Democrat (Gail Allison): 5,782 (36.4%)
• Write-ins: 21

Practical Vote Goal:

• To win, a candidate needs 50% + 1 vote
• Based on 15,863 total votes, the win number is:

(15,863 ÷ 2) + 1 = 7,932 votes

Reality Check:

• Democrat got 5,782 votes in 2024, meaning they fell short by:

7,932 - 5,782 = 2,150 votes

🧮 Trend of Total Votes by Year:

Projected 2026 Turnout:

• Expect similar to 2022 (~12,500) if it's a standard midterm
• If it's a high-stakes cycle, it could edge toward 15,000+

Safe planning assumption:

Plan for 13,000–15,000 total votes

Win number range:

• Low-turnout scenario: ~6,500 votes
• High-turnout scenario: ~7,500 votes

💰 Campaign Financial Feedback for District 58

Total Historical Fundraising:

• $2.68 million raised in the district from 2000–2024
• Average per candidate: ~$89,561

Standout Years:

• 2020: $1.5 million (likely due to a major, competitive race)
• 2016: $408,730 (another heated contest)
• Most other cycles: $50k–$180k range

2024 Fundraising:

• $56,142 total for both candidates
• Average per candidate: ~$28,000
• Suggests lower financial engagement, race not seen as highly competitive

🎯 Strategic Takeaways for Future Races

1. Vote Goal:
• Target 7,500–8,000 votes to win, planning for 15,000 total turnout
• If it's a sleepy cycle, ~6,500 votes could theoretically do it — but don't gamble on that
2. Financial Benchmarks:
• Competitive race = Expect $150k–$400k to be raised district-wide
• Non-competitive cycles hover around $50k–$60k
3. Current Trend:
• Incumbent Charley Thomson (R) won decisively in 2024
• Democratic performance stagnant (~5,700 votes)
• Unless national winds shift, D's need major investment + turnout work to close the gap

✅ Next Step Recommendation

• Get precinct-level data to identify potential Democratic growth areas
• Compare 2024 results to 2020, when Dems performed stronger
• Set a realistic vote goal of 8,000 votes, with field operations focused on boosting turnout
• Plan for minimum $100,000+ fundraising if the district is to be seriously contested