The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday ruled Alabama’s current congressional maps likely violate the Voting Rights Act, and the state’s districts will have to be redrawn.
Two of the Court’s conservative justices joined with the more liberal justices in the decision, which pointed out that only one of Alabama’s seven congressional districts was majority Black, despite about one in four Alabamians being Black.
The surprising ruling sets the stage for Alabama to add a second majority Black district, and potentially a second Democrat from the state in the U.S. House of Representatives.
It’s unclear what the new map will look like, but Moon Duchin, a mathematician and professor at Tufts University and an expert witness called by the plaintiff in the court case, offered four examples that would satisfy the requirement of adding a second majority Black district.
AL.com used Duchin’s proposed maps, which were made available by Dave’s Redistricting. You can explore those here.
Use the arrows in the graphic below to flip through each map, starting with the state’s original plan which was overturned.
[Can’t see the maps? Click here.]
If you’re having trouble viewing the maps above, or want to explore them individually, you can do so here: Map A, Map B, Map C, Map D, and Current Map.
There are a lot of possibilities to consider, and it’s unclear which of those four proposed maps, if any, will become official. Here’s a district-by-district look at how things could change under these proposals.
District 1
In each of the new proposed maps, South Alabama sees the greatest shift. District 1 currently contains all of Mobile and Baldwin Counties, and extends slightly north and east into Washington, Monroe and Escambia counties.
Under each of Duchin’s proposals, District 1 would get whiter and more conservative, moving from about 66% white under the current map to about 75% white, based on data from Dave’s Redistricting. And based on elections data from Dave’s Redistricting, it would move from about 60% Republican to about 75% under the new plans.
District 2
District 2 in southeast Alabama would become the second majority Black district.
The current district contains most of the Wiregrass and extends north and west through Montgomery and into its suburban areas in Autauga and Elmore counties. But the changes would have District 2 move from a majority white, Republican district to become one that’s about 50-51% Black, and one that would lean Democratic.
District 3
The rest of Alabama’s congressional districts, including District 3, don’t change as much as Districts 1 and 2, but that doesn’t mean things don’t shift some. District 3, in east Alabama, would change shape significantly under Duchin’s plans, but the demographic and political makeup wouldn’t change much, shifting by less than five percentage points.
Districts 4 and 5
Demographics and political leanings in districts 4 and 5 won’t change much under the new proposals, but the map would look a whole lot different. The new proposals would split the two north Alabama districts, dividing the top of the state in half roughly down the middle, with District 4 holding the northwest corner of the state, and District 5 the northeast corner.
The current map looks a lot different, with District 5 sitting on top of 4, which runs in a band across the state.
District 6
District 6, which sits in the heart of Alabama in the Birmingham area, would spread east all the way to the Georgia line under Duchin’s proposals. The district would also get whiter and more conservative by between 5 and 8 percentage points.
District 7
Alabama’s only current majority Black district, District 7 would perhaps be the least changed in terms of geography. It would, however, get slightly whiter and more conservative, but the district is currently nearly 70% Democratic voters, and about 55% Black. It would still be the state’s most liberal district even after the change.
You can explore how each map would affect which district you live in by finding your address in the map below. You can use the collapsable sidebar in the top left corner to click through each of the proposed maps and see how they differ, or click through to explore the map further here.
[Can’t see the map? Click here.]
Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Or questions about Alabama that data may be able to answer? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.