From left, Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and Andy Harris (R-Md.) converse while Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.) sits nearby during the second day of the House speakership election in 2023. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP)
If Republicans lose their majority in November — and it’s widely expected they will — Speaker Mike Johnson will likely step away from leadership, and many members believe that House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan is laying the groundwork to take Johnson’s place.
Jordan ran for the speaker’s gavel in 2023 as a conservative firebrand, with a brash, unapologetic style — and rubbed many of his colleagues the wrong way. NOTUS spoke with over two dozen lawmakers, congressional aides, outside advisers and lobbyists — who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about Jordan — and nearly all of them said there are signs Jordan is preparing for a potential leadership bid by making inroads with the moderate and establishment wings of the party.
“He’s done a really good job kind of broadening his base of support,” said one moderate Republican. “He’s gone out of his way to help people and build relationships.”
Jordan has undertaken a near-total rebrand in the past three years. He has traveled the country from coast to coast campaigning for members and candidates who don’t align with him.
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After former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster in 2023, when Jordan became Republicans’ nominee for a time, his colleagues had hundreds of questions for him. But one in particular got to the heart of why a handful of members would take issue with him leading their conference — and why, after three failed votes, Jordan dropped out of the race.
A member asked Jordan at the time why the conference should believe — after years of refusing to help or fundraise for members who did not agree with him — that he would suddenly be helpful.
“It wasn’t my job to help you then,” Jordan responded, according to two sources in the room.
His response epitomized why so many were reluctant to support his bid for any leadership position at all. They didn’t see Jordan as a team player. For years after he first came to Congress in 2007, Jordan made a name for himself by leading efforts to stifle leadership and, at one point, famously refused to help anybody who wasn’t aligned with the hardline Freedom Caucus that he founded.
One source close to Jordan pushed back on this characterization, saying that “while Jordan was out on the campaign trail much of the time, his main focus was defending the President against the bogus impeachments.”
Now, members acknowledge, he’s been working to change the perception he isn’t a real team player.
Still, any bid by Jordan for the top Republican spot wouldn’t be unchallenged. Majority Leader Steve Scalise is viewed as a top choice for the job, and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is also believed to be a serious contender. A spokesperson for Scalise declined to comment and a spokesperson for Johnson did not respond to a request for comment. Emmer said in a statement that the idea he was thinking about running for minority leader was “an absolutely ridiculous question.”
But members believe that Jordan wouldn’t second-guess jumping into the race.
While Jordan hasn’t spoken publicly about his leadership ambitions, sources point to several key indicators that back up the idea that he’s planning to make a bid. These include upping his fundraising game, campaigning for a more ideologically diverse group of members of the conference and taking leadership-friendly policy stances.
This effort has caused a swell of support from the more pragmatic wing of the party, while it’s hurting him with his longtime base, conservatives.
Four of the GOP members who spoke to NOTUS said there are active conversations taking place about how they could elevate Jordan should Republicans lose the majority.
“There are certainly a lot of people who would like to see Jim over the course of the next few years serving in an even bigger role,” one of these members told NOTUS.
“It wouldn’t be very smart to not think about” the possibility of losing the majority, another member said.
When asked about a potential leadership bid in an interview with NOTUS, Jordan demurred. Instead, he emphasized that he is solely “focused on helping our team keep the majority,” and he is “not at all” focused on any leadership bid if Republicans were to go into the minority.
“If the Democrats win, it’s going to be more of what they did a few years ago,” Jordan said. “We all know what they’re going to do. And my job is to go around and help us raise money, help candidates, help colleagues, and help turn out, hopefully, Republican voters, so that we don’t have that happen. That’s what I’m focused on.”
A run for minority leader might be an easier hill to climb for Jordan than running for speaker ever was. There is no need for a floor vote — you only need 50% of the conference plus one to become minority leader. And secondly, it’s a private ballot.
Allies of Jordan hope the inroads he’s made since 2023 will pay off.
Shortly after he was blocked from becoming speaker, Jordan worked to build bridges with the same members who torpedoed his bid.
In 2024, he went to New York and fundraised for the likes of Rep. Mike Lawler, who voted against him every time during the speakership bid, and that same year, he held a telephone town hall for Rep. Tony Gonzales, who also opposed him.
In the past three years, Jordan has crisscrossed the country to fundraise and help his colleagues and candidates in their elections.
Perhaps most surprisingly, Jordan — who at one point refused to donate to the National Republican Congressional Committee — now ranks third among the group’s benefactors outside of those in leadership. He’s raised over $1.3 million for the committee, according to internal numbers reviewed by NOTUS.
“I just help everyone, that’s always been my mindset,” Jordan said. “I said this on the day I nominated Kevin McCarthy for speaker, back during the 15 rounds of voting. I said, ‘Any differences that exist between Republicans, any differences between Jordan and [Dave] Joyce, are pretty darn small compared to the differences between Republicans and the radical left.”
“That is truly what I believe,” he continued. “And that’s why I try to bring our team together.”
Jordan has also taken on different policy stances.
He is backing a clean reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a staunch departure from two years ago, when he led the charge for a warrant requirement to be a part of any reauthorization. During a closed-door conference meeting in December, Jordan said that Republicans need to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies along with conservative reforms, a striking reversal from his previous support of a full repeal of Obamacare.
“Jim completely changed his tack,” said one senior Republican who opposed Jordan for speaker in 2023. “He knew that for any chance for him to ascend to a top leadership role, or any leadership role for that matter, he was going to have to shed the wrestler Jim and become a little bit more congenial, workable, friendly and civil.”
At least a few members of the Freedom Caucus, however, are less appreciative of Jordan’s overtures to the middle.
“Some of his angling is frustrating to some on the right,” one Freedom Caucus member told NOTUS.
Another Freedom Caucus member said that “Jordan has become milquetoast.”
“It’s disappointing to have watched him water himself down and not take up any kind of real fights. The FISA bill is a perfect example,” this member said. “That’s not the Jim Jordan that a lot of people remember. He’s basically watering himself down, changing his views, in order to move himself in the middle. I hope that this is just a temporary thing, but he’s not the fighter that he once was.”
In the interview, Jordan argued that he isn’t flip-flopping on his policy stances, saying that FISA is now an “entirely different program,” and with Trump in power, he doesn’t believe a warrant requirement is necessary at the moment.
“We’re in a war with Iran and the commander in chief, who’s been more abused by the Title 1 section of FISA than anyone, says, ‘Just give me a short-term extension on a program that’s dramatically different at a time when we’re in war.’ I don’t think that’s too much to ask,” Jordan said. “And we’ll keep watching this program, and the idea is we will do more reform, if, in fact, they are necessary, in 18 months.”
While many newer members of the conference weren’t around for Jordan’s burn-it–all-down days, there’s a significant number of members who were, and they haven’t forgotten what the old Jordan was like.
“His challenge is how does he overcome that,” one senior Republican said.
A handful of members still hold a grudge over how Jordan’s outside supporters treated them during his bid for speaker, they told NOTUS. From threats to harassing text messages sent to family members, many were inundated with menacing outreach during the speaker vote.
While Jordan condemned the harassing messages on multiple occasions, saying that “no American should accost another for their beliefs,” and that it was “just wrong,” what happened still echoes in the minds of some.
Then there’s the elections issue. Some Republicans fear that if Jordan becomes leader, Democrats would force vulnerable Republicans to own every stance Jordan has ever taken.
Still, even those who opposed him in 2023 admit that while they don’t want to see him become speaker, becoming minority leader is a different beast.
“In my heart of hearts, I think he would be a much better minority leader than a speaker,” said one such Republican. “That’s just how I view it. Because he’s an attack dog and that’s what you want in your minority leader.”
The issue for many, is that if Republicans return to the majority afterward, he would be the obvious choice for a promotion. And there’s still a significant subset of members who don’t want to see him with the gavel.
“When you flip and you win the majority, he gets promoted, and then he becomes a speaker candidate,” this member said. “I personally don’t like the thought of him being a speaker.”
