In early January, the anxiety of Democrats increased when Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), now 72, announced that she will not be seeking reelection in 2024. It isn't hard to understand why Democratic strategists and organizers regarded Stabenow's announcement as bad news. She is a four-term U.S. senator in a key swing state who has not had a problem getting reelected.
Michigan is among the five states that went to Republican former President Donald Trump in 2016 and Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020. It's a state where Democrats can perform well but cannot afford to be complacent. Some pundits, after Stabenow's announcement, toyed with the idea of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer making a Senate run; having defeated MAGA Republican Tudor Dixon by 11 percent in the 2022 midterms, Whitmer once again showed that she can be a tough, focused campaigner — not unlike Stabenow.
But other Democrats didn't like that idea because Whitmer, they argued, is serving Michigan well as governor — and should remain in that role for four more years. Whitmer herself ruled out the possibility of a 2024 U.S. Senate run, formally issuing a statement saying that she plans to serve out the second term she started in January.
Moreover, Whitmer, as governor, could be a valuable asset for Biden in that state if he seeks reelection and she campaigns for him. Michigan is not a state that Biden can afford to lose if he runs in 2024.
Journalists Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett, in an article published by Politico on March 13, report that Democratic anxieties about Michigan's 2024 U.S. Senate election may be decreasing now that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan) has jumped in that race. Slotkin, according to Wu and Everett, "has largely cleared the field in what could have otherwise been a messy Senate primary."
"Behind-the-scenes maneuvering by Stabenow and (Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer, a former Senate campaign arm chief himself, helped quell fears of a messy fight over succeeding Stabenow in a must-win battleground state," according to Wu and Everett. "But it's less likely that Democrats can or even want to similarly smooth internal headaches over other open Senate seats — simply put, the party is fine with a chaotic primary in deep-blue California but resolved early on not to let the GOP capitalize on a disorganized clamor in Michigan."
Stabenow hasn't endorsed Slotkin or anyone else so far, but she seems to be glad that Slotkin has entered that Senate race.
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Stabenow told Politico, "It appears that at this point, (Slotkin is) the only House member (running). And it appears none of the statewide electeds want to run. But we could certainly have people that aren’t in elected office now."
Nor has Sen. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Michigan) made any endorsements in that race, but like Stabenow, he appears to be glad that Slotkin is running.
Peters told Politico, "If we have a strong candidate status, it's certainly really beneficial to avoid a primary. Then, the candidate could be totally focused on the general election. If someone already has a proven track record in a really hotly contested race, and has been able to win? It's a proven track lead, as opposed to someone who looks good on paper."
Meanwhile, Democratic strategists are breathing a sigh of relief about Montana's 2024 U.S. Senate race. Centrist Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) has decided to seek a fourth term, which is important because they view Tester as one of the few Democrats capable of winning a statewide race in that deep red state.
In a March 11 tweet, Tester declared, "I'm the Senate's only working farmer, and I still farm the land my grandparents settled more than 100 years ago. I've dedicated my career to fighting for rural America and I don't plan on stopping now."
But West Virginia's 2024 U.S. Senate race worries Democrats; centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) has not said whether or not he is running. Manchin has been a frequent source of frustration to the Democratic Party's liberal/progressive wing, but he has a history of getting GOP voters to reelect him in a state that is overwhelmingly Republican.
Arizona is another state where things could get messy or complicated for Democrats in 2024. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) is running for the Senate seat presently held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat turned independent. And Sinema has not said whether or not she plans to seek reelection as a Democrat. If she does, Arizona could see a three-way race between Gallego, Sinema and the GOP nominee.