Can people be trained to forecast the future? | Popular Science

Some people can learn to be better at forecasting the future than others. These are their methods.

AROUND 2011, when Warren Hatch’s job was moving money around on Wall Street, he read a book that stuck with him. Called Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Would We Know?, it was written by psychologist Phil Tetlock, who was then working as a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley.